Big picture: Sri Lanka's home misery

It has been 10 years since Sri Lanka won a series anywhere against India, England or Australia. This is the sixth straight home series against these teams that they have failed to win. Against India, they haven't won anywhere since 2008. This general decline has coincided with the end of the career of Rangana Herath, who provided Sri Lanka competitiveness once Muttiah Muralitharan retired.

Since Herath's retirement, Sri Lanka have struggled to find one spinner let alone two, which is the ideal number, who will consistently outperform the opposition spinners on spin-friendly tracks at home. The same was the case in the first Test of this series in Galle. Prabath Jayasuriya and the debutant Keshara Nuwantha were outbowled by the Indian trio of Manav Suthar, Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav. While the emergence of Sonal Dinusha's batting is pleasant news for Sri Lanka, he remains strictly a batting allrounder.

Had there been any better spinners around, they would have been playing in Galle. That the changes made for the SSC Test are only in the batting department confirms that. So in Colombo, where the best Sri Lanka can manage is to draw the series, the same spinners will have to show considerable improvement for the hosts to stay competitive.

A big factor remains the toss. Look at the yields on each day of cricket in Galle: 288 for 2, 172 for 7, 286 for 11, 277 for 14 and 122 for 6. Now India's adventurous batting on days two and four because of time lost to rain was no doubt a contributing factor to the wickets that India lost, but still day one had the best batting conditions of the last Test. Sri Lanka will be desperate to win that toss on Sunday.

India will be glad to have put together such a thorough performance after having lost two of their last three series in similar conditions at home. It has kept alive India's chances in the World Test Championship. They can't afford to not win this one either. A win will take them to 57.58% of the points contested, which, if Bangladesh lose in Mackay, leaves India just outside the top three.

Looking at how well Mohammed Siraj and Prasidh Krishna bowled in Galle, India will be quietly confident even if they lose the toss at SSC, which hasn't quite been kind to fast bowlers, costing them 38 runs per wicket in the last 10 years. Having put in the performance they did in Galle, anything less than a win now will be unsatisfactory for India irrespective of the toss.

Form guide

Sri Lanka LDLWD(last five completed matches, most recent first)
India WWLLW

In the spotlight: Manav Suthar and Sonal Dinusha

It is quite amazing how quickly India have accepted Manav Suthar as their lead spinner. In both the innings he got the ball before Ravindra Jadeja, and struck in earnest. He announced himself in Sri Lanka with a first-ball wicket. He delivered everything expected of him: overspin, lots of work on the ball, long spells, and then when the ball was turning a lot he changed the seam orientation and increased his pace to give it every chance to extract natural variation from the surface. There is only anticipation of how he deals with newer challenges new Tests throw at him.

Sonal Dinusha looked most at home against India's spinners. It does help that he batted No. 6 on what was a new-ball pitch but there was a calm and an assuredness to his method. He came close to scoring twin centuries in the Test, and Sri Lanka will want more. Might they promote him so that the replacement for Dinesh Chandimal can enjoy a bit of a cushion?

Team news: Does Kuldeep Yadav retain his place?

Sri Lanka's list of injuries has only grown after the first Test. Neither of Pathum Nissanka and Kusal Mendis has recovered, and Chandimal is out with a concussion. They have also left out opening batter Nishan Madushka and spinner Ramesh Mendis. That means approval for Keshara Nuwantha with the ball, and a debut for Kamil Mishara. Pasindu Sooriyabandara made his Test debut last week under unfortunate circumstances, subbing in for the concussed Chandimal and lasting only one ball. A fantastic catch that he took came before Chandimal had been ruled out so even that didn't go down against his name. In the interest of fairness he should get another go in Colombo.

Sri Lanka (probable) 1 Lahiru Udara, 2 Kamil Mishara, 3 Kamindu Mendis, 4 Dhananjaya de Silva (capt.), 5 Sonal Dinusha, 6 Pasindu Sooriyabandara 7 Niroshan Dickwella (wk), 8 Keshara Nuwantha, 9 Prabath Jayasuriya, 10 Asitha Fernando, 11 Lahiru Kumara

Kuldeep Yadav continues to be under harsh spotlight after he managed only one wicket in his comeback Test. There were periods during which he looked threatening but also periods when he looked the least potent of the three India spinners. He still averages just over 23 in Test cricket, which speaks to his quality but also to the fact that 16 of his 19 Tests have come in India and Sri Lanka. A lot of Kuldeep's future depends on how the team management reads his current form: is he playing so little because he doesn't have the rhythm or does he have no rhythm because he plays such little cricket? The pragmatic way to find out is to give him one more game when the going is good.

India (probable) 1 KL Rahul, 2 Yashasvi Jaiswal, 3 Devdutt Padikkal, 4 Shubman Gill (capt.), 5 Rishabh Pant (wk), 6 Dhruv Jurel, 7 Ravindra Jadeja, 8 Manav Suthar, 9 Kuldeep Yadav, 10 Mohammed Siraj, 11 Prasidh Krishna

Pitch and conditions: Raining more than normal

The weather for the Test in Colombo is expected to be better than Galle where we got about 70 overs on an average everyday. The pitch is also likely to be drier than Galle even though it does have some grass on it, giving the quicks some visual hope at least.

Stats and trivia: Jaiswal's one-Test stands