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A crocodile basks in the sunshine on the roof of a submerged conference hall at a holiday resort in central Kenya, in a visible sign of how rising lake waters are endangering thousands of families and local businesses.

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Lake Baringo and other lakes in Kenya’s Rift Valley have risen to levels not seen in at least half a century, with scientists attributing the surge to extreme rainfall linked to climate change.

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Tens of thousands of people have been displaced to higher ground, according to official data, yet many victims say the lakes keep following them.

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In 2011, when the lake recorded its first significant surge, Mary Milka Tiren, 40, lost her husband after a hippo attacked him on his way home from his job at a popular tourist resort, which is now completely submerged.

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A decade later, her nine-year-old son spent three months in hospital after a crocodile attack, leaving a scar on his right arm.

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“It wanted to rip off his whole arm from the shoulder … but he was rescued by his peers after a long struggle,” Tiren said.

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“We’ve seen a rise in crocodile attacks not because there are more crocodiles, but because the lake is now close to the homesteads,” Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) senior warden Jackson Komen told AFP.

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“We also have hippo attacks because when the lake expanded, the (riverbank) riparian ecosystem — where we used to have pasture — was lost.”

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‘Ecological disaster’

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An AFP analysis of Copernicus Sentinel and NASA Landsat satellite imagery shows Lake Baringo’s surface area has expanded by 70 percent since 2010, from about 138 square kilometres (53 square miles) to 234 square kilometres.

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Neighbouring Lake Bogoria, which is notable for its high sodium levels, has also grown by 21 percent over the same period, increasing from 34 to 41 square kilometres.

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As the waters of the two lakes — one freshwater and the other alkaline — rise, the distance between them has narrowed.

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“If the two lakes mix, then the fish, crocodiles and hippos may not survive… we may have an ecological disaster that we don’t know how to deal with,” said Komen.

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Lake Baringo provides vital drinking and irrigation waters, and supports a thriving fishing industry.

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“It may trigger a complete change… I don’t know whether human beings will still be able to live here,” Komen said.

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The distance between the two lakes is now estimated to be about 10 kilometres (six miles).

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Scientist Mathew Herrnegger, of Austria’s University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, said “the overflow is already happening”.

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“Satellite altimetry shows that the lake level of Bogoria is high enough that it overflows towards Baringo,” he said.

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But how much water will reach Baringo and what impact it will have is unclear, he added.